The Phony Campaign

2019-06-16 Update

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Ah, all is once again right with the world. Donald Trump is on top of our phony candidates' Google hit counts:

Candidate WinProb Change
Since
6/9
Phony
Results
Change
Since
6/9
Donald Trump 46.5% unch 2,170,000 +320,000
Pete Buttigieg 6.8% -1.2% 1,800,000 -370,000
Bernie Sanders 6.6% -1.7% 840,000 +376,000
Joe Biden 16.5% +1.1% 681,000 +406,000
Elizabeth Warren 7.1% +2.0% 223,000 +22,000
Kamala Harris 5.3% -1.0% 90,000 -12,000
Beto O'Rourke 2.2% +0.1% 66,600 +500
Andrew Yang 2.7% +0.4% 23,700 +2,100

"WinProb" calculation described here. Google result counts are bogus.

The Betfair bettors seem to have bought into a Strange New Respect for Elizabeth Warren. She now has better winning odds than any other Democrat not named Joe. It was only a few weeks ago that she seemed to be circling the drain. Now it's Beto! who seems to be on his way to dipping below our 2% WinProb inclusion criterion.

The Democrats announced their debate lineups for later this month, with twenty phonies meeting their inclusion criteria. That's thirteen candidates not in the table above. Specifically: Michael Bennet ( Betfair-derived WinProb: 0.26%); Eric Swalwell (0.40%); Kirsten Gillibrand (0.40%); John Hickenlooper (0.48%); Cory Booker (0.77%); Amy Klobuchar (0.77%); John Delaney (0.27%); Tulsi Gabbard (1.54%); Julian Castro (0.50%); Tim Ryan (0.71%); Bill de Blasio (0.22%); and Jay Inslee (0.31%).

Oh, and also Marianne Willamson, who Betfair doesn't even bother to include. Notice that they do include folks like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Oprah Winfrey, Kanye West, Oscar De La Hoya, and other unlikely winners. That has to hurt a little, Marianne.

In last week's phony news:

  • The Washington Examiner reported: Cory Booker says elementary school yoga can help end the ‘school-to-prison pipeline’.

    Cory Booker endorsed an elementary school program that sends children that cause disruptions to yoga classes instead of detention.

    Fort Worthington Elementary School in Baltimore hired an instructor to teach children meditation and yoga. Instead of punishing children that cause problems with detention, teachers send the children to yoga class, according to a viral video posted by NowThis on Monday.

    "This is amazing. When we talk about ending the school-to-prison pipeline, this is exactly the kind of thoughtful, innovative and commonsense practice to we need to adopt," Booker, a Democratic candidate for president, tweeted Tuesday.

    Hire more yoga teachers, problem solved! It's obvious when you think about it for a few seconds!

    "Commonsense" takes on an entirely different meaning when uttered by politicians, doesn't it?


  • Elizabeth Nolan Brown writes at Reason, and Kamala Harris really sticks in her craw, in an amusing way: Kamala Harris Tries (Again) to Rewrite Her History as a Prosecutor of Petty Crimes.

    Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) is "leaning into" her history as a prosecutor, some observers noted after the 2020 presidential candidate gave a speech Saturday in South Carolina. Rewriting her history would be more accurate.

    "In this election, regarding my background as a prosecutor, there have been those who have questioned my motivations, my beliefs, and what I have done," Harris said at an event organized by the South Carolina NAACP. "But my mother used to say, you don't let people tell you who you are. You tell them who you are. Let me be clear, self-appointed political commentators do not get to define who we are and what we believe."

    But if we're to rely on Harris' own words and writing about who she is and what she believes, we're left with a whole lot of contradictions and all sorts of major gaps—as I note in Reason's latest print issue. Throughout her political career, Harris has been prone to playing up her progressive bona fides when it suits her and her carceral-centric side at other times. But her actions as a prosecutor almost always fell in the latter camp.

    Perhaps, as David French notes at National Review, Kamala is running for Queen.


  • In our occasional "If We Didn't Have Double Standards, They'd Have No Standards At All" Department, Legal Insurrection notes: Media Declares Speculation About Biden's Health Off-Limits After Speculating About Trump's Mental Health. Specifically, quoting a finger-shaking Daily Beast article on occasional Fox News conjectures about Wheezy Joe:

    In the news business, it is considered irresponsible to spread baseless, potentially damaging rumors about public figures.

    LI points out, among many examples, a 2018 Daily Beast article headlined "How Close Is Donald Trump to a Psychiatric Breakdown?"


  • Speaking of irresponsibility, it would be irresponsible if we didn't note Authenticity when it's observed, as it was by the Daily Wire: Joe Biden Didn’t Campaign In Iowa Last Weekend. His Reason Why Is The Most Authentic Thing He’s Said This Election..

    At a fundraiser Monday night in Washington, DC, Biden said, “I got criticism from one of my competitors because I didn't show up in Iowa to speak for five minutes with 19 people," according to the Associated Press.

    New York Times reporter Katie Glueck tweeted Monday night that a pool reporter said Biden continued, “My granddaughter was graduating. It was my daughter’s birthday. I would skip inauguration for that.”

    The AP reported Biden actually said “I would skip the damn inauguration for that.” (Emphasis added.)

    One cheer for Joe. But one can only hope he'll be skipping the damn inauguration for some other good reason. Specifically, losing.


  • … because it was right back to phoniness after that brief outbreak of honesty. As reported by Jim Geraghty at the NR Corner: Joe Biden Promises He Will Cure Cancer if Elected.

    Yesterday in Iowa Joe Biden declared, “I’ve worked so hard in my career that, I promise you, if I’m elected president, you’re going to see the single most important thing that changes America: We’re going to cure cancer.”

    Geraghty goes on to recall VP candidate John Edwards promising in 2004 that the Kerry/Edwards Administration would use stem cells to insure that "people like Christopher Reeve are going to walk, get up out of that wheelchair and walk again."

    And now Joe says that all we have to do to cure cancer is to elect him. Perhaps via yoga classes.



Last Modified 2019-06-17 3:10 PM EDT