Fearless Prediction on Carol Shea-Porter's ObamaCare Vote

Patrick Hynes' Now! Hampshire got an Instalink a few days back for this big news about my very own Congressperson:

One thing is clear: Unless Sen. Harry Reid and President Barack Obama back down on the excise tax in the health reform bills being merged in a secret conference committee, Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) will not vote for the final bill, the New York Times reports.

And that's not the only feature of the final bill Shea-Porter is likely to oppose.

The first link doesn't work; my guess is that this story is the one in question. Sure enough, it contains:
The House [version of the ObamaCare] bill, meanwhile, passed by only a five-vote margin, and at least three Democrats who voted for it -- Mr. Courtney, Phil Hare of Illinois and Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire -- have said they would oppose a final bill if it contained an excise tax [on so-called "Cadillac" insurance coverage] like the Senate version.
A previous Now! Hampshire article on Shea-Porter's likely vote said:
Influential liberal blog Fire Dog Lake is reporting that Democratic Congresswoman Carol Shea- Porter (NH-01) has "vowed to vote against any bill that does not have a public option."
Follow the link to Fire Dog Lake, however, and it appears it's been modified (without explanation). The relevant text now reads:
Carol Shea-Porter vowed to vote against any bill that does not have a public option has an excise tax, so she looks to piss off both liberals AND conservatives with a "yes" vote.
Hm, so what's the real story? Again, playing follow-the-link we get to:
This tough talk [from AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka about the excise tax] was buffeted [?] by a labor liberal in Congress, Carol Shea-Porter, who over the weekend said she would vote against any bill which included the excise tax. While 190 Democrats have signed a letter rejecting the excise tax, I don't recall any member of Congress making this claim before. Shea-Porter, while generally a liberal, won her seat in 2006, and faces a fairly tough re-election battle. This movement on the health care bill may be as much about November as it is about any firmness on the excise tax.
… and the link goes back to the original Now! Hampshire story.

But wait, it gets worse. Later in that same article, there's an un-timestamped update:

UPDATE: Shea-Porter spokeswoman Jamie Radice just emailed a statement saying that the Congresswoman has NOT made an ultimatum on the excise tax:
"Both in private and in public, Congresswoman Shea-Porter has never said that she would vote for or against a final health care reform bill if it contained an excise tax. She has spoken out forcefully against this tax, which is contained in the Senate's health care reform bill, but she is waiting to see what the conference report looks like before making any final decisions. She remains in support of the House version."
So, um, there you go. She says she never said it.

My guess: she got leaned on, and she caved, on both the public option and excise tax issues. And my fearless prediction: if her "yes" vote is necessary to pass the monstrous legislative turd excreted by the current closed-door negotiations, she'll provide it.


Last Modified 2010-01-17 8:00 PM EDT