Apr
9
2023

The Phony Campaign

Easter 2023 Update

It's been a volatile week for the long shots at Election Betting Odds. Nikki and Mayor Pete have dropped below our p ≥ 2% inclusion criterion and Governor Gavin has risen above it.

Go figure.

And "Other"—the number we calculate to get the probabilities to add up to 100%—is now doing better than Governor Ron. That has to sting a little, doesn't it?

But there's good news, Ron: Google is convinced that you are, once again by far, the phoniest candidate, beating a certain recently indicted former president by nearly a 4-to-1 margin.

Candidate EBO Win
Probability		 Change
Since
4/2		 Phony
Hit Count		 Change
Since
4/2
Ron DeSantis 16.7% -1.3% 4,580,000 -2,940,000
Donald Trump 25.9% +0.3% 1,160,000 -1,010,000
Joe Biden 33.6% +0.5% 413,000 -213,000
Kamala Harris 3.1% +0.3% 108,000 -20,000
Gavin Newsom 2.2% --- 48,500 ---
Other 18.5% +2.3% --- ---

Warning: Google result counts are bogus.

  • I'm sure this is not what they mean when they say someone has an "infectious" laugh. Elle Purnell of the Federalist reports that Biden Is Creepily Laughing At Inappropriate Times, Like Kamala. Example:

    After a shooter who appears to have identified as transgender shot six people, including three 9-year-old children, at a Christian school in what police confirmed was a “targeted attack,” Biden laughed off a reporter’s queries about whether the attack was a hate crime against Christians.

    “Do you believe that Christians were targeted in the Nashville school shooting?” a reporter asked.

    “I have no idea,” Biden responded.

    “Josh Hawley believes they were,” the reporter noted, referring to the Missouri senator’s demands that the FBI investigate the shooting as a hate crime. “What do you say to that?”

    “Well, I probably don’t, then,” Biden retorted before breaking into a grin and chuckling. “No, I’m joking.”

    "Hah. I crack me up." Tweeted video:

  • Patrick Frey (aka Patterico) appears at the Dispatch, trying to find the pony in all the horseshit: A Modest Case for the Case Against Trump.

    The merits of prosecuting Donald Trump for hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels were debated even before the indictment came down, and that debate certainly hasn’t cooled since Trump appeared in court Tuesday. The most illuminating document, though, is not the indictment itself but the statement of facts in support of the indictment. That statement of facts describes a case that, depending on the quality of the evidence offered to support it, may be stronger than many critics think.

    It depends. It may be. Not exactly going out on a limb here, folks. But Frey is an actual lawyer, and I am not, so…

  • CBS News headline: Early DeSantis supporters exhibit Trump fatigue: "I wish he would kind of enjoy retirement". But not everyone feels that way. Not Debbie Dooley, for example:

    "If Donald Trump is not the nominee, I will vote third party. I will not vote — Ron DeSantis — I wouldn't vote for him for anything," said Debbie Dooley, an ambassador for the "Veterans for Trump" group that gathered in the parking lot outside DeSantis' event in Georgia.

    Dooley was once a fan of DeSantis, and wrote his name in for governor in the 2022 primary and general election. But on Thursday in Georgia, she was wearing a t-shirt that said "ULTRA MAGA" and brought a makeshift poster featuring news clips of Trump's attacks towards DeSantis. "He is phony, and he is fake," Dooley said of DeSantis. 

    Not that it matters, but Debbie Dooley has her own Politifact page, although the newest entry is nearly eight years old.

  • In honor of Gavin Newsom's reappearance in our poll, let's look at a WSJ editorial: California Adds Fuel to a Gasoline Refiners’ Fire.

    A majority of Californians tell pollsters they don’t want Gov. Gavin Newsom to run for President. Maybe they think he’s pushing destructive progressive policies to promote his national ambitions, such as the law he signed last week to punish oil refiners.

    The law establishes a new state bureaucracy empowered to cap gasoline refining profits. If refiners’ profits exceed the cap, they will pay a penalty, which will go into a special fund that legislators could use to “address any consequences of price gouging on Californians.” This is a fund for Democrats to buy votes.

    The WSJ says California gas prices average $4.83/gallon, and they describe the state policies responsible. Scapegoating refiners is… well, phony.

    The pic accompanying the editorial:

    [Phony Gavin]

    I'm probably biased, but that just screams "phony" to me.


Last Modified 2024-01-30 6:11 AM EDT