Christian Schneider proposes a warning label to be slapped on AI innovation: "Caution: May Cause Billionaires." (archive.today link)
AI can already detect cancers that humans using existing technology cannot, and it’s getting better every day. A study of 100,000 women in Sweden suggested that AI use in breast cancer screenings cut late diagnosis by 12 percent.
An AI model that analyzes and predicts cell movement was reportedly able to spot pancreatic cancer three years before doctors reading scans could. Other progress has been shown in detecting other organ diseases, diabetes, high blood pressure, Alzheimer’s, and Parkinson’s.
But while AI may lead to cures for disease, progressives around America are more concerned about the byproducts of such innovation. Instead of marveling that we may be on the verge of machines that catch the tumors that would otherwise kill us or our loved ones, they’ve decided the real crisis is that a few rich people are profiting from the data centers that make it possible.
The left’s complaint is twofold: The infrastructure is ruining the environment, and billionaires shouldn’t exist.
Multiply this single well-documented example by the ones we don't know about yet.
At the WSJ, James Freeman notes another voice raised against "digital doomsayers": Bezos, Billionaires and the Age of AI Abundance. He quotes extensively from Bezos's recent CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin, and here's a small excerpt:
BEZOS: … America is the greatest country in the world. We have more entrepreneurial dynamism here than anywhere else in the world. This is the best time to be alive in America because we have access to capital is so easy right now. It’s so good. And I’m talking about entrepreneurs—
SORKIN: Right.
BEZOS: And aspiring entrepreneurs. And that’s, we should have so much optimism about the future.
SORKIN: Okay. Well, I want to talk about some of that optimism because there are some people who are very fearful, by the way, about A.I.
BEZOS: I know. I’m very aware of this. And I think those people are dead wrong…
SORKIN: … I don’t know if you saw Eric Schmidt gave a commencement address over the weekend. And the students were booing because every time he mentioned AI, they were booing because I think they’re deeply fearful and worried about whether they’re going to have a job.
BEZOS: Yes, well, and the reason they’re afraid of that is because all these smart people keep saying that. So there are so many smart people, and they are smart. And they are saying, oh my God, there’s going to be no more radiologists, because AI can read X-rays better than a radiologist can. And there are going to be no more software engineers because AI can program better than a software engineer can. These people are wrong. So what’s really going to happen is that it’s going to elevate all of these people. And it’s like you’ve been digging, let’s say you’re a software engineer, the analogy I can give you is you’ve been digging out a basement for your house with a shovel, and somebody is about to hand you a bulldozer… what’s really going to happen is we’re going to have so much productivity in our economy that, for example, this is just one effect. A lot of people who have two earner income households, one of the people is going to drop out of the workforce. That’s why we’re going to have a labor shortage. Because of the productivity gains, you’re going to be able to afford things. I predict we’ll actually have deflation of certain core, assuming we let this technology play out and don’t hamstring it with regulation too early… food will get cheaper, and housing construction will get cheaper, and so on and so on…
10,000 years ago, somebody invented the plow, and the whole world got wealthier… the root of civilizational wealth is invention. So, somebody invented the plow, we all got wealthier. Much later, somebody invented the steam engine, we all got wealthier. That’s how this works.
SORKIN: And you don’t think this is, at this time, is different?
BEZOS: No, it is not different, it’s even better… this is a moment when the possibilities are so large. Just keep your eyes open to those possibilities.
It seems that, beyond the transitory headlines, the real story these days is whether America will continue to be innovative, or let fear, uncertainty, and doubt prevail.
Also of note:
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Good advice. I've mentioned the feeble protests made at New York University against their commencement speaker, Jon Haidt. He's put the text of his address up at After Babel: Treasure Your Attention. I like the opening:
NYU began holding commencement ceremonies here in Yankee Stadium in 2009. Since then, graduates have heard from prime ministers, presidents, Supreme Court justices, movie stars, civil-rights crusaders, and Taylor Swift. So I know what you’re all thinking: Finally, they brought in a social psychologist!
Perhaps that’s why over the past few weeks, as I’ve thought about what I might say to all of you, I’ve felt grateful. I’ve felt excited. But most of all, I’ve felt a strong sense of responsibility. Because I am part of NYU. I love this university, and I love the students that I have the privilege to teach. That’s why I feel a strong responsibility to do my small part to make this the great and memorable day that all of you, and your families, deserve.
I think it's pretty good! Check it out.
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I suspect I know at least one reason. At the Daily Economy, Matt Zwolinski purports to explain Why Libertarianism Keeps Splintering.
Is libertarianism cracking up? Pick almost any contested political issue of the moment, and you’ll find prominent self-identified libertarians on opposite sides of it. On immigration, the Cato Institute’s Ilya Somin has spent the last several years arguing that libertarian principles require something close to open borders. Lew Rockwell, founder of the Mises Institute, has spent the same years arguing that they require the opposite. On Israel and Gaza, Walter Block has been an unabashed defender of Israel’s military operations on libertarian grounds; Dave Smith, working from what he takes to be the same principles, has been an equally vocal critic.
On the larger question of whether libertarianism should renew its old fusionist alliance with cultural conservatism, Reason‘s Stephanie Slade has made a careful and sympathetic case for fusionism — including in a forthcoming book of that name; her colleague Elizabeth Nolan Brown has been a consistent voice for the more “libertine,” socially liberal version of the tradition. None of these disputes is between a “real” libertarian and an impostor. Each is between recognized, self-identified libertarians who reach opposite conclusions about what libertarian principles require. Are these still the same movement?
Matt was one of the contributors to the "Bleeding Heart Libertarians" website a few years back. He makes a pretty solid point about what kind of a beast "libertarianism" is (or should be):
… [L]ess as conclusions deduced from a single axiom, more as provisional positions arrived at through careful thinking about particular issues, with libertarian principles as one important input among others. On some questions that thinking will yield confident conclusions. On many it will yield humility. That, I’ve come to believe, is the stance that actually follows from taking libertarian principles seriously, once you see that they were never powerful enough to do the work that ideological certainty requires of them.
Not for the first time, I'll mention that all the political parties, including the Libertarian Party, seem dedicated to not following this advice.
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And also relying on DoorDash-delivered takeout. At Reason, Ari Shtein describes another outrage: America's Highway Fund Is Running Out of Money. Congress Wants To Spend New Funds on Not Fixing Highways.
As the national debt rises ever higher, Congress is gearing up to pass an enormous infrastructure spending bill.
Earlier this week, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee released the BUILD America 250 Act. The sprawling 1000-page bill combines some hits—including provisions to streamline environmental reviews of infrastructure projects—with some obvious misses.
Lawmakers claim that the bill would strengthen the Highway Trust Fund, which pays for both road maintenance and mass transit investments, by levying a new registration fee on electric vehicles (E.V.) and plug-in hybrids. But Marc Scribner, senior transportation policy analyst at Reason Foundation (the nonprofit that publishes this site), tells Reason that it "won't come close to eliminating the revenue-outlay gap," since the bill fails to rein in the "irresponsible spending" that has doomed the fund to insolvency by 2028. Scribner's assessment seems to be shared by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which finds that although the E.V. fee could raise around $30 billion in the next decade, "the Highway Trust Fund will remain severely out of balance."
My own CongressCritter, Chris Pappas, is a proud member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Which means he probably bears an above-average responsibility for this lousy outcome.
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RIP, RCP8.5. Roger Pielke Jr. notes the MSM's misguided coverage of the demise of climate-change doomsday scenarios, and thinks the "experts" are trying out a Jedi mind trick: These are Not the Droids You are Looking For.
Two weeks ago I wrote about the most significant development in climate science in decades: the international committee responsible for producing the scenarios adopted by the IPCC formally retired RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0 — labeling them “implausible.” Last week I documented the near-total silence that greeted the announcement from the English-language mainstream press.
Then President Trump posted about RCP8.5 on social media, calling it “WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” (just about the only accurate part of his post!).
Within 48 hours, the New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg, AP, and Carbon Brief and others published on the scenarios. The main motivation for the coverage centered on Trump, not the new scenarios.
Today, as a follow up to my post noting that there was almost no English language coverage of RCP8.5 RIP, I take a closer look at this first wave of mainstream English language media reports.
In a nutshell: The overwhelming framing of the “climate beat” is that there is really nothing to see here, and to the extent that there is, what we are witnessing reflects the incredible success of climate policy. Right wing media has focused more on the politics, emphasizing the scenario evolution as a “win” for President Trump.
Roger does an admirable job of documenting the lazy and irresponsible job the MSM performed in covering this story accurately and fairly.
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