The Phony Campaign

2016-11-06 (and Final) Update

This is the 97th "Phony Campaign" installment for the current political season, which we've been doing mostly weekly since late December 2014. (Interestingly, Donald Trump did not make the initial cut; he didn't show up in our standings until June 21, 2015.)

It's probably time for me to admit that the voters show absolutely no sign of breaking hard for the Johnson/Weld Libertarian ticket. Even ignoring the massive character flaws of the major party candidates, it's the only one that offers any respect for the Constitution, fiscal sanity, and individual liberty. So the horse race is between two old nags whose campaigns are nearly entirely based on pointing out how dreadful the other one is. And, for that, the campaigns deserve some points for accuracy: they really are both dreadful.

In said horse race, PredictWise gives the filly an 87% chance of winning, unchanged from last week. FiveThirtyEight pins a 65.5% tail on the Donkey, down about 13 points from last week.

It's worth pointing out that 65.5% is considerably less than certainty.

It's safe to declare Trump the winner in our Phony polling:

Query String Hit Count Change Since
"Donald Trump" phony 1,490,000 -50,000
"Hillary Clinton" phony 951,000 -89,000
"Jill Stein" phony 498,000 +70,000
"Gary Johnson" phony 75,800 -9,100

So what's behind all those phony hit counts this week?

  • In the WaPo, reliable Democrat flack E. J. Dionne claims "Donald Trump is a phony outsider". Dionne's evidence on this point is thin; he mainly concentrates on reporting Missouri polling results. But here's the assertion repeated, with some weak evidence:

    Trump has bragged about his influence peddling and his closing argument was reinforced with help from anti-Clinton Republican congressional insiders and the FBI as well. How in the world has he been allowed, almost unchallenged, to paint himself as an anti-establishment rebel?

    I seem to remember a time when Dionne was less superficial than this. I could be wrong, though.

  • In HillaryLand, the Americans for Tax Reform note "Hillary’s Phony $250,000 Tax Pledge".

    Hillary Clinton has endorsed several tax increases on middle income Americans, despite her pledge not to raise taxes on any American making less than $250,000. She has said she would be fine with a payroll tax hike on all Americans, she has endorsed a steep soda tax, endorsed a 25% national gun tax, and most recently, her campaign manager John Podesta said she would be open to a carbon tax.

    Why it's almost as if she were a congenital liar (as William Safire noted over 20 years ago).

  • Ah, Jill Stein, we will miss you. Because of headlines like: "Jill Stein Wants National Conversation On Oppressive Comedians". Jill was put out at HBO's John Oliver for his Stein-negative comments on his show. A sample from her rant:

    This country was built on oppressing The Other (Blacks and indigenous people) and I’m not going to stand for more of this while we deal with major crises in this country that could determine whether we’ll even survive as a species.

    What's missing from Jill's analysis? Only that (1) the mainstream media, including HBO/Time-Warner, are nearly entirely boring shills for the Democratic Party; (2) that means that Jill Stein must either be ignored or ridiculed, lest she cut into Hillary's vote totals; and the only surprising thing is (3) that Jill seems to be surprised by this. She should know better.

  • You can click the link to discover "Why Gary Johnson Won Over Some Voters After Faking Heart Attack At Debate".

    Unfortunately, the debate wasn't against Trump and Hillary. It wasn't even this year. But:

    Back in February 2015, Johnson - formerly Governor of New Mexico - appeared at the Conservative Political Action Conference to debate marijuana legalization. Onstage with him was for U.S. Rep. Anne Marie Buerkle (R - New York), who began making an exaggerated claim about marijuana before correcting herself and reining in the prohibitionist rhetoric.

    "You have a one-in-five - a higher chance of having a heart attack within the first hour after you smoke marijuana. There are legitimate side effects of this drug," she said.

    Rather than argue the point, Johnson mocked Buerkle by clutching his chest and falling over on the stage.

    Good one, Gary.

Last Modified 2024-06-03 6:03 PM EDT